At the MaRS Climate Impact conference in Toronto earlier this week, some of the starkest warnings about what may be coming for us were offered by John Vaillant, who delivered a stark and urgent address centered on his book, Fire Weather: The Making of a Beast. Exploring climate disruption, petroleum dependency, and human vulnerability to fire, Vaillant’s Fire Weather looks at the unprecedented devastation brought by the modern forest fire. His work has appeared in The New Yorker, the Atlantic, National Geographic and The Guardian, among others, and have won the Governor General’s Award, the Writer’s Trust Non fiction prize and British Columbia’s National Award for Non Fiction.
He began with a resetting of reality: “We have natural fluctuation in climate systems that is normal cooling and warming. But what we see here instead is a steady ratcheting upward and then a leap in 2023 that climate scientists really haven’t been able to explain.” His remarks underscored the absolute urgency of addressing climate change, that we are already past several critical breaker moments, how much things have intensified in the past two years, the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, and the challenges in adapting to a rapidly shifting world.
Introduction: A New Climate Reality
Vaillant began by acknowledging the stark evidence of climate disruption as “the issue of our time.” He described the past two summers as a turning point, with widespread fires and smoke making the consequences of climate change visible to millions. Referring to 2023 as an inflection point, he noted, “What appears to be happening now is a non-linear acceleration.”
Using data to illustrate the unprecedented changes, Vaillant highlighted how North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, Arctic temperatures, and Canadian wildfire activity in 2023 deviated sharply from historical norms. He described this shift as entering “terra incognita”—a new, unknown climate—marking the end of the Holocene epoch and the beginning of what he termed “civilizational retreat.”
Fire and the Energy Crisis
Vaillant drew direct connections between fire and our fossil fuel economy, which he described as a “global Ponzi scheme powered by fossil fuels and leveraged against the future of the living world.” He noted that CO₂ levels are now 50% higher than pre-industrial levels and explained how rising temperatures are driving catastrophic weather events, including fires. These fires, in turn, release massive amounts of carbon, exacerbating the climate crisis.
Key statistics included:
• In 2023, Canadian wildfires released 1.5 gigatons of CO₂, more than the annual emissions of Japan.
• The energy released by Canada’s 2023 wildfires totaled 42 terawatts, equivalent to the power consumption of several major global cities.
Quoting Alex Steffen, Vaillant introduced the term “discontinuity”, which he defined as a situation where “past experience ceases to be a useful guide to future problem solving.” Firefighters, he said, have been grappling with this phenomenon for decades, encountering fires of unprecedented scale and intensity.
The Human Cost of Wildfires
Vaillant painted a vivid picture of the human toll, emphasizing how wildfires have displaced hundreds of thousands of people in Canada. “About a quarter of a million Canadians were on the road in 2023, essentially refugees in their own country,” he said. He pointed out that 80% of Red Cross Canada’s work is now domestic, compared to 20% fifteen years ago—a reversal that he called “the most shocking statistic I have for you today.”
Vaillant described the harrowing experience of the 2016 Fort McMurray fire, which devastated Canada’s petroleum hub. Despite advanced predictive tools and simulations, the evacuation was delayed, and first responders were overwhelmed. He shared the story of a resident witnessing “fireballs rolling over his wife and daughter’s car,” with dashboard temperatures reading 66°C (151°F).
Fire as a Metaphor for the Fossil Fuel Economy
Vaillant argued that fire is both a literal and metaphorical consequence of our fossil fuel dependency. He likened CO₂ to debt and the rising number of disasters to “the Bank of Nature coming to collect.” Referring to billion-dollar disasters, he said, “These floods, fires, heat waves, and intensifying storms are repossessing our homes, our towns, and even our very lives.”
He warned strongly (at a climate tech conference) against relying on technology as a panacea, criticizing the tech industry’s libertarian ethos. While AI and predictive models have potential, they failed to prevent disasters like Fort McMurray, where infrastructure and response systems collapsed under pressure. “Tech did not save that city. People did,” he stated.
Nature is Telling Us Things: The Absolute Urgency of a Fundamental Rethink
Vaillant concluded by challenging the audience to rethink humanity’s relationship with nature. He criticized “petroleum-powered, AI-enhanced capitalism” for fostering the illusion that nature is an infinite resource and that humans are in control. “Nature owns 51% of everything ,” he reminded the audience, emphasizing the need to treat the natural world as an equal partner in decision-making.
He framed the current moment as both a crisis and an opportunity, urging society to mature beyond unsustainable practices and embrace a transition to cleaner energy, resilient infrastructure, and a deeper respect for the environment. Drawing on the metaphor of the Three Little Pigs, he warned, “We’ve built our homes out of 20th-century straw, and now there’s a 21st-century wolf at the door.”
Key Quotes
1. “What appears to be happening now is a non-linear acceleration.”
2. “Discontinuity is when past experience ceases to be a useful guide to future problem solving.”
3. “CO₂ is debt, and heat is the interest on that debt.”
4. “Nature owns 51%, and she is collecting on that debt.”
5. “Tech did not save that city. People did.”
Vaillant’s remarks were a stark call to action, urging the audience to confront the realities of climate disruption and work toward a sustainable future. His blend of data, storytelling, and sharp critique underscored the urgency of addressing the crisis signals we are receiving: intertwined crises of fire, fossil fuels, and climate change, and the current half hearted inadequacy of our efforts to mitigate damage, a theme from several speakers at the conference.
The time to prevent damage by reducing emissions is gone. All we can do is mitigate, cure by attempting to get carbon out of the atmosphere, and innovate our way out of an existential crisis. The only solutions that will work will be human centered, not tech centered.
Coming up later today: Vaillant in conversation with Manjula Selvarajah, Solve for X
